July Monthly Market Review

An excerpt from our Q2-2025 Quarterly Investment Report:

Following a tariff-induced spike of volatility in early April, global equities bounced back buoyantly in the second quarter. The U.S. market closed at a record high. Global credit markets across the ratings spectrum also enjoyed strong gains. The U.S. market’s cheer withstood continued sour business and household sentiment, elevated policy uncertainty, slowing economic growth, a looming tariff-induced increase in prices, a short-lived war in the Middle East, and the prospect of mushrooming fiscal debts, deficits, and debt servicing costs. Despite a 7% jump in oil prices following the attack on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, oil prices closed the quarter sharply lower. The U.S. dollar index fell in the second quarter, bringing its decline in the first half of the year to 10%. Gold and crypto, in contrast, rose further. As we explore in this quarter’s Special Topic, the dollar’s fall in a period of market turmoil has raised doubts about its safe haven status.

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