March 2026 Monthly Market Review

An excerpt from our March 2026 Monthly Market Review:

The fog of war enveloped markets in March. Oil markets experienced wild intra-day price swings and spiking prices. Global equity markets declined as hopes for a rapid conclusion to hostilities faded. U.S. Treasury prices also fell as inflation expectations rose. Many major central banks, including the Fed, the ECB, the BoC, the BoE, the BoJ and the SNB, kept their policy rates unchanged in March. However, citing the risks to inflation posed by the war, they struck a hawkish note. The U.S. dollar recovered its status as a safe haven, rising 2.4%. With the U.S. dollar rising and the prospect of higher rates ahead, gold prices fell sharply. Other commodity prices rose, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted trade in a broad range of key commodities. Regional shortages have appeared in jet and diesel fuel and other distillates. Regular U.S. gasoline prices rose 36%. Knock-on effects of shortages and higher prices are being felt upstream.